Propane Prices Dashboard. Learn about new events and offers to keep you at the forefront of industry news and opportunities. The idea is to compute a representative index of winter severity (or lack thereof) for each year in propane country. Surveyed in December by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas about the outlook for Henry Hub gas by the end of 2021, nearly 40% of 140 energy firms responding predicted prices would … So most likely, propane prices will start to decline, as anticipated by the forward curve in Figure 1. Of course, the #1 culprit is exports. MARKET TRENDS & DRIVERS4. Figure 3. The left graph shows prices for Asia LNG (represented by JKM — the Japan Korea Marker), and Asia Propane (represented by FEI — the Far East Index) for July 2020 through January 12, 2021. The obvious conclusion: U.S. inventories have been sucked down by exports out of Gulf Coast terminals. New Jersey Residential Propane Price is at a current level of 3.22, up from 3.206 last week and up from 2.90 one year ago. Sail Away – Propane Exports Exceed 400 Mb/d for the First Time. This winter season started out warm, with HDDs in November 2020 well below November 2019 (dashed red ovals). That didn’t last long either. Monday, 08 February 2021. This week, Mont Belvieu is back up to the high 80s c/gal. Two weeks ago, Mont Belvieu propane was going for almost 95 cents/gal, up 86% from the mid-November price of only 51 c/gal. And for that matter, some propane is spiked into Asia’s LNG system to boost supplies when it gets cold, so part of the demand for the two commodities really is the same market. By January, as we detailed in Big Panama With A Purple Hat Band, that was just how it was playing out, with markets further complicated by long delays at the Panama Canal and, as a consequence, skyrocketing shipping rates due to a shortage of VLGCs — the vessels that move most U.S. propane to Asia and Europe. US propane demand is projected to increase slightly in 2021 … Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for Propane estimated at US$126.5 Billion in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of US$147.7 Billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR … Mont Belvieu Non-TET Propane Price and Propane to Crude Ratio. The Midwest price was unchanged at $2.28 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast price decreased 1 cent to $2.10 per gallon. DULUTH, MN-- Fuel experts say now is the time to lock-in your propane prices for the winter. The left graph shows winter season (October-March) average monthly U.S. heating degree days (HDDs) weighted by propane population for each EIA PADD district, then averaged by propane demand in each PADD. Time to Move On - Shell's Plan to Sell Another Refinery, This Time in Louisiana's Refinery Row, Hold on to Your Hat - A Fight is Brewing for Canada’s Propane Exports, Too Soon to Know - E&Ps Slash Capex, Offer Sparse Production Guidance, Save It for a Rainy Day - Energy Storage's Emerging Challenge to Natural Gas in the Power Sector, Gimme Some Truth - Permian Well Shut-ins Wind Down, But Natural Declines Extend Oil, Gas Downturn, He Ain't Heavy, He's My (Diluent) Part 3 - The Pipelines that Transport Diluent to the Oil Sands, We Take Care of Our Own, Part 2 - Pemex's Struggles Bode Well for U.S. But those forecasts soon dissipated. However, this should ensure that propane … For comparison, the price of Mont Belvieu propane during the winter of 2019-20 was only 43 c/gal, while back in 2018-19 the propane price was way up at 73 c/gal. Location Price; Average: $1.3063: Due to a lack of sources, OPIS pricing for Anacortes … Was the run-up in U.S. propane prices simply a reaction to cold weather much closer to home? But that may be nothing more than a short-term blip due to the surge of cold and snow hitting the U.S. Midwest and Northeast over the past few days. So far, 2020-21 has been a wild winter in Asia, with record- or near-record-low temperatures experienced over the past few weeks in Japan, South Korea, and northeastern China impacting both LNG and LPG prices. MARKET OVERVIEW, 2. At the same time, Asia propane (FEI) pulled back about 10%, and Mont Belvieu propane dutifully followed FEI, also declining about 10%. Export economics and the impact of exports on inventories have been the primary drivers for propane prices. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 1% CAGR.Chemical & Refinery Segment to Record 2.3% CAGRIn the global Chemical & Refinery segment, USA, Canada, Japan, China and Europe will drive the 1.9% CAGR estimated for this segment. Bill Wyman left the band in 1993, and Darryl Jones has been their bassist since that time. So far in the winter of 2020 … The right graph in Figure 4 depicts those consequences so far this propane season. All e-mails from the system will be sent to this address. Sources: ICE/Argus and OPIS. TRADING ECONOMICS provides forecasts for Commodity prices based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. Things move fast in today’s propane market. Gulf Coast Propane Exports and Weekly EIA Propane/Propylene Stocks. So far in the winter of 2020-21, the price has averaged 62 c/gal. As we noted in Now You See It, those warm temperatures resulted in low propane prices last winter. That way we can compare month to month how much propane we have in storage versus how much is going to market, whether that market is within the U.S. or somewhere else. … But in December and January, we saw some cold weather — just not materially colder than a year ago. Even though we entered propane season with healthy inventories, exports were running at all-time highs, and it looked like stocks could be depleted at record rates. Instead, it is what is happening 7,000 miles away from Mont Belvieu — in Asia. The Rolling Stones were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1989. Last week, the EIA propane days-supply number was 32.2 days. Now You See It, Part 2- Could U.S. Propane Demand Plus Exports Draw Down Inventories Enough to Spike Prices? It was first released in June 1964 by The Valentinos, which featured Bobby Womack, and went to #94 on the Billboard Hot 100 Singles chart. In the first half of January, Mont Belvieu and Conway propane prices skyrocketed in sympathy with prices in Asia, low inventory levels in the U.S. due to exports, and the threat of a Polar Vortex weather event (that ultimately did not materialize). Retail propane prices this heating season rising above prices the same week last year in PADDs 1 and 2. After all, it was the same market dynamics driving both markets. 2.00. The growing push for lower-emission trucks and alternatives to diesel is leading breakthroughs for the next generation of propane … Use for propane deliveries between 02/15/2021 to 02/21/2021. Over the same timeframe, FEI (March contract) increased from about $335/metric ton to $552/MT. Prices aggregated from Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources telephone surveys of propane dealers who service Massachusetts households; not inclusive of any discounts offered for cash payments and based on the average winter fill-up 100-150 gallons/fill-up or more.. Just as prices reached one-dollar-per-gallon territory in mid-January, the market came off hard, with Mont Belvieu propane (blue line in Figure 1) down by a dime in just over a week. Which begs the question, if it’s not that much colder, why are prices so much higher this year than last? The current forecasts were last revised on February 12 of 2021. 3.00. heating oil (2020- 21) heating oil (2020- 21) propane … Sure it’s been cold in Asia, but what about the weather in the U.S.? Research and Markets also offers Custom Research services providing focused, comprehensive and tailored research. What gives? - Is the Crude Market Headed for an Ugly Replay of This Spring? The moral to this story is that when it gets cold in Asia and they need the propane, exports are going to move, regardless of the consequences for U.S. propane inventories. Future prices for propane are about as low as they’ve been in 16 months. But the cost of propane is also another concern. The Rolling Stones have released 30 studio albums, 33 live albums, 29 compilation albums, three EPs, and 121 singles. But then prices in Asia declined. That indicator, with its laser-focus on U.S. demand, was an appropriate measure for the propane market in the decades before major exports, and has ranged from a low of 23 days in the depths of the winter of 2017-18 to a high of 121 days in November 2015. ), Figure 2. It has been certified Gold by the Recording Industry Association of America. INTRODUCTION, METHODOLOGY & REPORT SCOPEII. For comparison, the price of Mont Belvieu propane during the winter of 2019-20 was only 43 c/gal, while back in 2018-19 the propane price was way up at 73 c/gal. Check this box if you do not want to receive RBN morning emails, Smoky and The Salt Caverns - A Saga of NGL Storage: RBN's Greatest Hits, Dream On - The Challenges Posed by Shutting Down the Dakota Access Crude Pipeline, What Difference Does It Make? But there is a lot of uncertainty around how that might play out this year. Propane demand for cracking should increase, but concerns regarding propylene oversupply and wintertime spikes remain. Prices … Average Total Days-Supply [Stocks/(Domestic Demand + Exports)]. 4.00. Personnel on the record were: Mick Jagger (lead vocals), Keith Richards (lead guitar, backing vocals), Brian Jones (12-string guitar), Bill Wyman (bass), and Charlie Watts (drums). Jones left the band one month before his death in July 1969. Figure 4. In EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report released last Friday for the week ending January 15, propane inventories declined by 6.2 MMbbl from the prior week, a huge decrease of 890 Mb/d (red line and dashed yellow circle). Tuesday, 01/26/2021Published by: Rusty Braziel. In other words, this bit of evidence tells us that the price of propane in Mont Belvieu over the past few months has been heavily influenced by the price of propane in Asia. That reality not only alters how we must think about prices, it shifts the entire supply/demand equation to be as dependent on demand in Asia as it is on demand in U.S. propane country. So to get a good indication of the relationship between demand and inventories today, it is important to include exports in the equation — after all, total demand really is the sum of domestic demand and exports.