Please note that no two players will have all of the same objectives. Handed in my Wondrous Tails and finished 9 stickers and got 1 line. To maximize your chances of obtaining the highest-tier rewards, you will want to obtain 7 stamps and use shuffle until the stamps conform to one of the 24 patterns shown above. And this is where Shuffle comes in. If you don't want to waste Second Chance on Repeat, then just do all tails, lol, but it's troublesome. Khloe Aliapoh’s Wondrous Tails give you a reason to mix up your usual routine, or even to revisit some old content. There is a whopping 81% chance that, at seven stickers, you’ll have zero lines currently completed, which means you’re still at the mercy of chance. A journal with one potential line, by our definition, has a 0% chance of getting two lines, which drags the average down. You're correct that a 1 current, 1 potential journal is not possible. You will only receive one Second Chance point per objective even if more than one party member is new to the duty. I really dig Wonderous Tails, but I really wish that it was accompanied by a DF change to uncapped primal/raid content. If anyone in the party haven't done that tail, you can earn 1 second chance. I think the safest thing to say here is that journals with zero current lines and two possible lines are the place to burn excess Second Chances. At seven stickers, if you have any completed lines, don’t Shuffle. Khloe Aliapoh fears her stories are not quite what they used to be, as they no longer seem to lift the spirits of her troubled friend. wondrous tails If players are in for a bit of RNG and dungeon or trials grinding, players can pick up their Wondrous Tails from Khloe Aliapoh in Idyllshire (x 5.7, y 6.1). There appear to be this many pattern possible : 16!/ = 11440 I was able to identify 24 winning pattern. So basically, if all you’ve got left is Extreme Primals, you can hit Retry, and maybe it will let you do a second Expert Roulette instead. I'd write it if I had a place to host it. All Rights Reserved. But after a flaw in my simulation was pointed out and I reran the data, it turned out the commenters were right all along. Every week you can go see Khloe in Idyllshire to pick up a Wondrous Tails journal. I wouldn't use ALL the Second Chances on this but I think I'm likely to get that Second Chance back doing Leveling Roulette. ... Kinda new to Wondrous Tails – if you already have a line, can you still shuffle? If you ended up with: You would still only have one line. Cookies help us deliver our Services. In the case you exceed the reward period for a Wondrous Tails journal, you may speak with Khloe Aliapoh to exchange it for a new one. EDIT: MORE IMPORTANTLY, this comment thread reflects the original post where I was using some flawed data. This is a journal with seven stickers with a checkerboard pattern. So, you can’t wait until the journal is complete and spam Shuffle until you win. And further, the rewards of the next journal might be different, too. If you think about that for a second, it’s completely obvious. If I get 1 line, I stop and use Repeat to do easy trials again to get 9 stickers, or I just do Frontline and any tail dungeons in 1st line. After completing the quest Keeping Up with the Aliapohs, speak with the NPC Khloe Aliapoh in Idyllshire (X:5.7 Y:6.1) to receive a journal containing sixteen objectives. I imagine that many people are currently drowning in Second Chance points now, with the patch having just been released. Once you reach seven stickers, there’s only around a 7% chance that you’ll be poised toward one of the three-line layouts from Kaldiin’s post. 148 votes, 41 comments. Basically you just watch PF for your target content and go... which seems to defeat the purpose of widespread help for new players looking to clear. Letter from the Producer Live #32 is a wrap from Tokyo Game Show, and we’ve got a summary of all the juicy details below. With the last sticker I finally finished a line. Furthermore, you have 93% chance of getting a journal which, at seven stickers, is physically impossible of getting three lines via the last two stickers. Looking at this further, there was a bug in my simulation code which skewed the data. Retry can be used to complete otherwise difficult objectives and to effectively re-run an already completed objectives for an additional seal. And there’s no point in Shuffling at three stickers when we can hardly tell what the journal looks like, therefore we’ll always wait until seven stickers to consider Shuffling. Sure, the Ornate stuff might sell better, but the chances of actually getting it are so absurdly low, I would rather get a Command V and either sell it or keep it for down the road. Actually retry works slightly different, you specifically choose which one to make available again, and it blacks out a random one. Wondrous Tails Another all-new feature, Wondrous Tails, debuts in Soul Surrender. And that’s just a 7% chance to have the potential to get three lines; your odds of actually getting it at that point only end up around 3%. Wondrous tales calculator. Just so you know, your first example is an 8 sticker box, need to make the top left an underscore, for it to work. Take up Khloe's journal, the Wondrous Tails, and fill it with pages of your own adventures, that she might be inspired to write new stories of her own! But you can only use it when you have between 3 and 7 stickers; so you can't use it when you have 8 or 9 stickers. You can only receive one seal per objective. You can receive up to nine points. Wondrous tails calculator. My apologies for the earlier misinformation. Shuffle (2 points): Shuffle the position of all seals in the journal. http://ffxiv.gamerescape.com/wiki/Wondrous_Tails. Receive a Wondrous Tails … I used all the 2nd chances I got: 2x the shuffle when I had 7 stickers, just for the chance that they would result in a line (they didnt), then once to re-use the simplest challence of running potd levels 1-10. -----|--------------|--------------|-------------- 0 current | 11.47% | 67.69% | 1.89% 1 current | | 13.64% | 5.03% 2 current | | | 0.28% Total | 11.47% | 81.33% | 7.20%. Notice how this has nothing to do with lines and sticker placement. Mea culpa! If we Shuffle that checkerboard, there’s a 11% chance we’ll end up with an equally awful journal, but we have an impressive 89% of getting a better journal with higher potential. Journals with zero completed lines and two possible lines are the tricky case. Please note that no two players will have all of the same objectives. Context: If you don't know yet, in Wondrous Tails, you can use two chance points to shuffle your stickers around. This is going to happen to you 68% of the time. If there’s two possible lines, Shuffle if you have a surplus of Second Chances. Journals with 2 lines are valued 4 times as much as journals with 1 line. If you didn’t get to call in but have some thoughts on FFXIV be sure to tweet us @shehealsitank or email us shehealsitank@gmail.com We hope you have a great week playing FFXIV and a great week in real life. The first Second Chance ability is called Retry. ...I'm really glad they added a /facepalm emote in this patch. [shrugs] To each their own. A completed Wondrous Tails journal offers four different tiers of rewards, depending on if your nine stickers create three, two, one, or zero completed lines. A community for fans of Square Enix's popular MMORPG "Final Fantasy XIV Online", also … Blog-Eintrag „Some tips in Wondrous Tails“ von Hydeus Cantatherust Therefore, don’t waste points on Retry, since it doesn’t increase your odds of better rewards. Most of the challenges are old content, and running anything with a newbie gets you points to either muck with your completed challenges or shuffle your stickers in the hope of completing lines. To maximize your chances of obtaining the highest-tier rewards, you will want to obtain 7 stamps and use shuffle until the stamps conform to one of the 24 patterns shown above. If you have a surplus of Second Chances and are at risk of capping, Shuffle once or twice. It's just more likely that if you have 1 line at 7 stickers, that you finish two lines at 9. More fun...and wipes. It has zero current lines, and only a maximum of one potential line. Personally if I was approaching the cap on Second Chance points, I'd rather burn the points on that risky 0-complete 2-potential scenario, since that's still contributing to more chances of the 2-lines reward. Just to make sure we’re on the same page, let’s run a few examples: This is a journal with seven stickers, two current lines, and a third potential lines if the last two stickers complete the upper-left-to-lower-right diagonal. I’m making the base assumption that the average person would greatly prefer the two-line and three-line rewards, but your personal preferences might differ. The second immediate conclusion is that crappy journals are common and great journals are rare. Keeping Up with the Aliapohs Disciple of War or Magic level 60 Idyllshire (X:7.0 Y:5.9) Unctuous Adventurer - Completing Wondrous Tails 1. If you Shuffle here, you have a 21% chance of getting a better state, and only an 11% chance of getting a worse state, but still a 68% of Shuffling into a state no-better-no-worse than you left off in. So, as soon as the patch notes, I tried to find out how to calculate the probability of winning this mini game, and this is what I deduced. Wondrous Tails is a feature in Final Fantasy XIV that will be added with Patch 3.4. You've got complete and incomplete the wrong way around. Second Chance points can be used for 2 things: Retry (1 point), or Shuffle (2 points). I wrote a little computer simulation to run through every possible journal with seven stickers, assessing the odds of what will happen when we get that eighth and ninth sticker. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. But I suspect that it's going to get significantly harder to get them after a couple of weeks, until 3.5 rolls around. Just busted blount county tn 1 . Now that the topic has been updated with correct data, Esdarke is completely correct that you never want to Shuffle away a complete line. Ffxiv Normal Raid Roulette Exp Cheats; Ffxiv Normal Raid Roulette Exp Tier; Ffxiv Normal Raid Roulette Exp Cheats; FFXIV is filled with so many dungeons, trials, and other duties that there are probably some you’ve forgotten all about. Right... Ahh, so you can choose which one you want available again? Placing 9 seals on a 4x4 grid leads to 11440 possible outcomes, of which only 24 complete three rows. FFXIV Wondrous Tails Calculator Select up to nine stickers. FFXIV Wondrous Tails Calculator: A neat tool that tells you the probabilities of your current wondrous tails card resulting in one, two or three lines when you complete it. On the other end of the spectrum, as I mentioned earlier, you have an 11% chance of getting to seven stickers and being faced with an ugly checkerboard where it is physically impossible to get two lines. A new journal will be available from Khloe Aliapoh every week on Tuesday at 1:00 a.m. (PDT). I did generalize pretty heavily about how desirable each reward is, compared to others. I might be proven wrong, but we'll see. A Wondrous Tails journal can only be kept for two weeks, starting from the Tuesday when it was first issued, before it must be handed in for a reward. As well as the overall odds of getting 1-3 lines for comparison. Keeping Up with the Aliapohs Disciple of War or Magic level 60 Idyllshire (X:7.0 Y:5.9) Unctuous Adventurer - Completing Wondrous Tails 1. Considering every week you have a 11% chance of spending at least 2 points Shuffling, I don't personally foresee the 9 cap on Second Chance points being a problem. Director/producer Naoki Yoshida and global online producer Toshio Murouchi took the stage to show off the new trailer for Patch 3.4 Soul Surrender and detail some of its contents.Patch 3.4 will arrive on September 27th. Never Shuffle if your journal has three potential lines, regardless of whether or not you have any completed lines. Once you have unlocked Wondrous Tails, it is possible to receive Second Chance points even if you do not currently possess a journal. Ffxiv Normal Raid Roulette; Ffxiv Normal Raid Roulette Unlock; Ffxiv Normal Raid Roulette Exp; FFXIV is filled with so many dungeons, trials, and other duties that there are probably some you’ve forgotten all about. These points also can shuffle the position of the stickers on the board if you want to try your luck and see if it completes a line. There should be enough options that you can find nine easy-ish ones, especially now that more people will be doing older content. Now that we’ve asserted that you really want a rare journal that shows a lot of potential at seven stickers, let’s take a closer look at just the odds of each type of journal. Shuffle is only available when you have between 3 and 7 stamps placed, meaning that there will no guarantee that you will be able to obtain the top-tier reward in a given journal. This will take your existing stickers and shuffle them on the 4x4 grid. About half of my journal is something like T9, PVP, T1, etc...and those got old a while ago. At 8-9 seals, switching between those 3 strategies involves trading up to ~6% of your chances of getting at least 1 line with up to ~1% of your chances of getting at least 2 lines. It should be: It takes one of the sixteen events that you've already completed, marks it incomplete and marks another event complete. I was only thinking about the DoW/DoM materia which is a lot easier to come by, and totally forgot the DoH/DoL materia. There’s also other incentives, such as Wondrous Tails, a random bingo-like sticker album that has you doing old content for a shot at good rewards. That would be amazing. All said, despite the randomness of sticker placement and Shuffling, and all the number crunching and simulations, the tl;dr optimal strategy for Wondrous Tails is deceptively simple. Resolution for 3Lines on Wondrous Tails ffxiv reddit ~ Yes but you can randomly shuffle them using 2 second chance points while you have between 3 and 7 seals So if you get seals in a way that for sure wont get 3 lines you could keep resetting at 7 until you get one that has a chance. Besides getting the 3 line - and only if the reward is an upgrade/worth selling anyways, for people concerned with gear progression, 2 line is optimal. I can use Shuffle 3 times. I used all the 2nd chances I got: 2x the shuffle when I had 7 stickers, just for the chance that they would result in a line (they didnt), then once to re-use the simplest challence of running potd levels 1-10. If I get 1 line, I stop and use Repeat to do easy trials again to get 9 stickers, or I just do Frontline and any tail dungeons in 1st line. This forum post by Kaldiin shows the different possible ways of getting three lines with nine stickers. That's 4 Second Chance points being burned in a single week. Depending on the exact layout, you have between a whopping 92.8% to 99.7% chance of Shuffling into a worse state, so enjoy your lucky journal. One line is the maximum potential of this journal. If you have a chance of getting two lines in your current journal, it’s automatically an above-average chance. Then, I broke these journals up by two metrics: how many lines were currently completed with just seven stickers, and how many lines could be potentially completed with the full nine. Gamer Escape: Gaming News, Reviews, Wikis, and Podcasts, https://ffxiv.gamerescape.com/w/index.php?title=Wondrous_Tails&oldid=744756. If you’re low on Second Chances, then just keep this journal and save the Second Chances for the much worse 0-current 1-possible journals. With that you make sure to get that reward even if RNG places your last two stickers. Never Shuffle: always recommends not to shuffle. All said, despite the randomness of sticker placement and Shuffling, and all the number crunching and simulations, the tl;dr optimal strategy for Wondrous Tails is deceptively simple. So basically, if you already did your Expert Roulette and now all you’ve got left is Extreme Primals, you can hit Retry, and then you can do a second Expert Roulette instead. This version has 3 rewards per tier, and includes lvl 70 equipment. So this is just a random lottery, right? EDIT: /u/moogle_home pointed out a flaw in my data that was introduced due to a bug in my simulation. There's no specific tips so I will give you some example. FFXIV BLOG,FFXIV TIPS,FFXIV Technical Support. The three meaningful choices here are "1 line maximum chance", "2 lines maximum chance" and "1 and 2 lines tradeoff". Again, we’re looking at each possible journal of seven stickers, broken down by its number of current line and its maximum number of potential lines.
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